Selection Sunday: The cases for and against Nebraska

Nebraska's long and stressful wait is finally about to be over later tonight, as the Huskers will learn their postseason fate during the "Selection Sunday" announcements, which start at 5 p.m. CT on TBS.

Plenty of debate has been wagered both for and against NU's case for the NCAA Tournament, and it seems like no one outside of the Selection Committee has any real idea of where exactly the Huskers stand.

Here is a general recap of the main talking points both supporting and dismissing Nebraska's place in the Big Dance...

1. The overall body of work

If someone would have said Nebraska would finish the regular season with 22 wins and 13 Big Ten victories, most everyone would have automatically assumed that would be a surefire NCAA Tournament season.

In most any other year, it certainly would be. Despite varying opinions over how good the Big Ten is as a conference, the fact that a team posted a 13-5 record and a fourth-place finish in a Power Six league should carry a ton of weight.

Nebraska's league schedule didn't lend many chances to accumulate the valuable Quadrant 1 wins at home, as it only got three of its eight Q1 match-ups at Pinnacle Bank Arena.

But the Huskers went 2-1 vs. those teams that actually did come to PBA, beating Michigan and Minnesota (which the committee is expected view as a Q1 win) in convincing fashion and coming a buzzer-beater miss away from topping Kansas.

Maybe NU's strongest argument is with its Strength of Record (SOR), which might show the Huskers' true value as a tournament team as much as anything.

As of Saturday the Huskers ranked 32nd nationally in SOR, which put them ahead of 24 other teams considered to be on the bubble or safely in the tournament.

2. History is on their side

While the way the Selection Committee will evaluate certain criteria is a bit different this season compared to previous years, it's worth noting the historical context of what Nebraska has already accomplished.

*Of the 61 Big Ten teams ever to win 13 or more conference games in a season, all 61 have gone on to play in the NCAA Tournament.

*Of the 306 teams to win 13 conference games in a Power Six league, 304 made the NCAA Tournament.

*Of the 68 Power Six teams to go 13-5 in conference play, 67 went on to play in the NCAA Tournament.

*No Big Ten team with 20 or more total wins and fewer than seven conference losses has ever missed the NCAA Tournament.

3. Objective opinion and the eyeball test

National bracketologists seem to look no further than the NCAA Team Sheets and the RPI and Strength of Schedule rankings in determining who they think will and won't make the NCAA Tournament.

The major problem with that is those actually making the selections on the committee are taking into account things that don't always show up on those same metrics and analytics.

Committee chairman Bruce Rasmussen has said time and again that objectivity and personal evaluations will come into play more than ever this year. If that's the case, it should be a huge boost for Nebraska.

Rasmussen himself has watched the Huskers play in person at least four times this season, which gives him a perspective of how good NU actually is far more than just glancing at the analytics.

Then you hear more and more national analysts - actual basketball people - throw heavy support behind Nebraska's case to make the Big Dance. Within the last week, TV personalities like Seth Greenburg, Tom Crean, and Dan Dakich have all publicly backed NU.

Prominent coaches like Bill Self, Tom Izzo, John Beilein, Chris Collins, and others have also gushed about Nebraska and think there is no question it's a team worthy of the Big Dance.

The Huskers also still two received votes in this week's Associated Press Top 25 poll, which would put them tied with Kansas State for 36th place.

1. The metrics

All of the above being said about needing to look beyond the numbers, Nebraska's resume is the No. 1 reason why it's in this situation.

Though their SOR is strong, the Huskers' average ranking with that along with the RPI, BPI, KPI, KenPom, and Sargain polls is 55th.

The 113th-ranked strength of schedule certainly doesn't help, nor does their average RPI victory coming in at just 180.

What kills NU most of all, at least in the eyes of bracketologists, is the lack of Quad 1 wins. Nebraska was just 1-6 vs. Q1 opponents (according to its NCAA team sheet), including 0-5 away from Pinnacle Bank Arena.

The Quadrant 2 record isn't much better at 2-3, and again, with just one win coming on the road.

As if all that wasn't bad enough, of Nebraska's 22 victories, only six came against teams with overall winning records (Boston College, UTSA, Michigan, Maryland, Indiana, and Penn State).

2. The perception of the Big Ten

Basically ever since going a dismal 3-11 in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge back in November and December, the Big Ten's national perception has been on a season-long nose dive.

Despite the fact that the league has four teams ranked in the top 17, three of which in the top 10, there's been a narrative all year that the conference is a shell of its normal standards.

That thinking has been costly for Nebraska, as many bracketologists quickly dismiss its 13-5 league record by saying it came against a sub-par conference.

To make matters worse, three of the Huskers' five Big Ten losses were in lone meetings vs. the three best teams (Michigan State, Purdue, and Ohio State), and another was to an Illinois squad that finished second-to-last in the league standings.

3. Too many missed opportunities

It's hard not to think about how much this conversation would change had Nebraska been able to pull of one or two more high-profile wins over the course of the season.

The game the Huskers would probably like to have back the most is the 71-70 loss to Kansas in Lincoln, where Anton Gill's 3-pointer at the buzzer missed its mark to give NU its only home defeat of the year.

A win over the Jayhawks - the Big 12 champions who currently rank No. 9 in the country - would have done wonders for Nebraska's RPI and its postseason resume.

But there are others that could have helped alter the course of the Huskers' NCAA Tournament standing.

The loss to Central Florida in the first round of the AdvoCare Invitational in Orlando may have been as costly as any for NU.

Not only did it give the Huskers a Q2 defeat, it forced them to play Marist (323 RPI) and Long Beach State (191) rather than West Virginia (26) and either Missouri (45) or St. John's (94).

Basically anyone who evaluates bracketology thinks Nebraska is very much on the outside looking in entering Selection Sunday.

In fact, only three of the 79 most notable bracket projections have the Huskers making the field of 68.

According to the handy site created by die-hard NU fan Ben VanKat, Nebraska is sitting at about a 30 percent chance at making the NCAA Tournament.

But so what?

I realize it’s a long shot and the odds are stacked against NU in big way, but I'm sticking with a gut feeling I've had for the past few days and saying the Huskers will make the Big Dance tonight for the second time in five seasons.

Nebraska is in.