Iowa at Nebraska: Keys to victory, HOL score predictions

After winning three of the first four Heros Trophy games, Nebraska (3-8) has dropped the last six straight to Iowa (9-2).

The Hawkeyes come into Lincoln today with hopes of still getting to the Big Ten title game, but must hope for a Minnesota win over Wisconsin. As we get closer to kickoff, here are today's keys to a Husker victory over Iowa.

NU currently enters today's game as a 1.5 point underdog, but originally opened as a 4.5 point favorite before the injury to quarterback Adrian Martinez. Today's game is set for a 12:30 pm kick and it can be seen on the Big Ten Network.

KEY 1: New wrinkles on offense

Iowa has some film on quarterback Logan Smothers, but not much. This will be the first time Scott Frost has ever built an entire game plan around Smothers. NU needs to build it around his strengths and use his legs to get Iowa off-balanced.

KEY 2: Special teams

On paper, Iowa has a significant advantage in every special teams category in this game. If those metrics play out, it will be very hard for the Huskers to have a chance in this game, especially without quarterback Adrian Martinez.

KEY 3: Run fits on defense

Last week Nebraska was in a great position to make plays on Wisconsin but attacked the run fits too hard, which created huge play opportunities and several missed tackles. The Hawkeyes will attack NU very similar. Nebraska needs to play with better discipline today on defense.

KEY 4: Use the run to set up big pass play opportunities

Iowa is going to dare Logan Smothers to throw it downfield. They will load the box and force him to make quick decisions. Smothers needs to connect on a few deep shots in one-on-one coverage.

KEY 5: Senior Day emotions

This Senior class has been through a lot at Nebraska. The wins obviously aren't there, but a win over Iowa would do wonders in terms of giving this season something to hang its hat on. NU's seniors need to come out with emotion and want this win over the Hawkeyes.

Sean Callahan - HuskerOnline Publisher

Nebraska will cause Iowa's defense some problems early in this game with some new offensive wrinkles built around quarterback Logan Smothers. The Hawkeyes though will adjust and dominate in special teams to leave Lincoln with a 7 point victory.

Iowa 27, Nebraska 20

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Robin Washut - HuskerOnline Senior Writer

As great of a storyline it would be for Nebraska to finally beat Iowa with a backup quarterback on Senior Day, I just don’t see it happening. The Huskers are so banged up on both sides of the ball, and the offense will be limited against one of the most opportunistic defenses in the country. NU ends the year with a sixth-straight loss.

Iowa 28, Nebraska 17

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Jim Rose - 1110 KFAB Radio Sports Director

Big opportunity for Coach Frost and the Huskers prior to the season-ender. A new QB means fresh problems for Iowa’s defense which has grown accustomed to AM over four years. We will learn a little about Scott and how he can prepare a QB. Gonna see if Logan Smothers has the “it.” Short passes, move the pocket, run misdirection, run the ball on 1st down. Give the kid a chance to succeed. I think it’s gonna happen.

Nebraska 24, Iowa 20

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Mike'l Severe - 1620 the Zone

I wish we could see this game with a fully healthy blackshirt group. It's not like Iowa has been above average on offense but tackling was an issue last week and it needs to be solid vs Tyler Goodson. Smothers has had first-team reps maybe times over the last half of the season with Martinez banged up. He knows the offense and should be fine.

Nebraska 20, Iowa 17

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Andy Kendeigh - KETV Channel 7 Sports Director

Iowa is the most opportunistic defense in the in the Big Ten and the Hawkeyes have the most interceptions in the country (21). Nebraska's recipe with Logan Smothers making his first start should be run, run, run -- the issue is can they? Doubtful. Iowa's special teams are elite as well so look for the Hawkeyes win streak over Nebraska to reach seven.

Iowa 24, Nebraska 20