As Tim Miles tried to process how his Nebraska squad, which went 22-10 overall and 13-5 in the Big Ten this season, was relegated to a five-seed in the NIT, he couldn’t help but look back on the path that led up to Selection Sunday.
In many ways, the Huskers were victims of scheduling factors that were well beyond their control.
Not only was the Big Ten down from its normal standards this year, but NU only got to play three of the league’s best teams - Michigan State, Purdue, and Ohio State - once in the regular season, all on the road.
Maybe more importantly, Nebraska didn’t capitalize on the few opportunities for ever-important Quadrant 1 wins it did have.
There was the buzzer-beater loss to Kansas and losing at Creighton despite being within one possession in the final minute.
There was also the loss to Central Florida in the first round of the AdvoCare Invitational, which was compounded by forcing NU to play Marist (323 RPI) and Long Beach State (191) rather than West Virginia (26) and either Missouri (45) or St. John's (94).
Nebraska still posted a Strength of Record - easily its best resume metric - of 32nd nationally that put it ahead of 24 other teams considered to be on the bubble or safely in the tournament.
Yet that was clearly not enough to overcome a 113th-ranked strength of schedule, their average RPI victory of just 180, and going just 1-6 vs. Q1 opponents, including 0-5 away from Pinnacle Bank Arena.
So as the Huskers try to regroup and make the most of a disappointing end to a record season, the question going forward becomes how do they avoid being in this position again, where wins alone matter little when it comes to making the Big Dance?
“I’ll have to study it a little bit,” Miles said when asked how this season could impact future non-conference scheduling. “We’ve always scheduled, I think, fairly to what we thought. We just didn’t know what the league was going to look like coming in… But we played plenty of Power Six schools. I don’t know how many, but at least 23 or 24 I’m sure, and usually that’s kind of your number. We just didn’t have many opportunities to win (Q1 games).
“I think we had the fewest opportunities to win, and we didn’t win. That’s what it all really comes down to.”
As of Monday, only a handful of games are known for NU’s 2018-19 schedule.
There’s the annual showdown with Creighton (at home), as well as the Hall of Fame Classic in Kansas City (Nov. 19-20) with Texas Tech, USC, and Missouri State also in the field.
Nebraska will likely go on the road for its ACC/Big Ten Challenge game, and there’s a good chance it will host a Big East opponent in the Gavitt Games. Considering NU’s fourth-place finish in the Big Ten, those could be much better draws than in year’s past.
It’s also important to keep in mind that the Big Ten is moving to a 20-game league schedule next season, meaning there will be two fewer non-conference opportunities.
All that being said, what will be the most crucial for Nebraska is the Big Ten getting back to its usual self on the national landscape. What looked to be a daunting league slate ended up being a major blow for the Huskers as they made their charge towards an NCAA Tournament bid the past two months.
“Essentially by the time we played Ohio State at Ohio State, there wasn’t another game we could’ve won that mattered until the Big Ten Tournament if you look at the quad system and what it was,” Miles said. “Nobody could’ve predicted that, and you can’t.”
Creighton A.D. Bruce Rasmussen, chairman of the NCAA Selection Committee, had hinted all year that the quadrant system would only be one of many metrics used in determining the tournament field.
But when the bracket was finally unveiled on Sunday, it was obvious that those teams who had multiple Q1 wins - especially those who played the most Q1 games - were given a significant advantage in the at-large pool.
“It’s a debate and it’s a discussion about the quality of wins, the quality of opportunities, compared to the quantity of opportunities,” Rasmussen said during the TBS broadcast. “You’re right, there are teams that had more opportunities… (Teams like Nebraska, St. Mary’s, and Middle Tennessee) played some great non-conference games, they just didn’t win those games.”
On the other end of the spectrum is Oklahoma, which finished just 18-13 overall and 8-11 in the Big 12, including losing eight of its final 10 games and 11 of its final 15.
Still, the Sooners benefitted from a 6-9 mark vs. Quadrant 1 teams, the 32nd-ranked strength of schedule, and an RPI of 49. Enough so that they earned a 10-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
“We look at the entire body of work,” Rasmussen said. “So we look at all the games. The games in November, December count the same as the games in February and March. And Oklahoma had six wins against top 35 RPI (teams). They had some absolutely great wins.
“We know that they stumbled down the stretch, and that certainly affected their seeding, but they had enough on their résumé to get in.”