Huskers face crucial stretch before conference play

Following Nebraska's loss to Cal State Bakersfield Tuesday, head coach Darin Erstad took an upbeat tone, optimistic that his team will get it together to improve the current 9-9 record. But the numbers indicate that the team needs to turn the tide quickly to approach its goal of hosting a regional this year.

The Huskers' loss to the 11-5 Roadrunners dropped their RPI 10 spots Wednesday, and with only five more nonconference games on the schedule, the time to make a move is now.

Four games at Cal Poly (7-12, RPI 170) and a Tuesday game against Kansas State (15-6, RPI 97) set the slate over the next week. If the Huskers finish the next five games with a losing record, it will be an uphill battle to clinch a seed in the NCAA Tournament against a Big Ten schedule with only one team in the top 30 of the latest RPI.

The math is simple: 31 automatic bids in the NCAA Tournament takes up one short of half the field. If Nebraska doesn't win the automatic bid for the Big Ten conference champion, it would likely need to be in the top 40 of the final RPI to get into the tournament. Only the top 16 teams host a regional.

Nebraska's road to a regional begins this weekend in San Luis Obispo. The Huskers face a Cal Poly team that started off slow but has won five of its last eight, allowing an average of just 2.6 runs in each win.

The Huskers have never lost to the Mustangs, with Thursday's game being the seventh all-time meeting between the teams. The most recent game in the series was in 2003.

Thursday, March 23 (8:00 p.m. CT): Nebraska RHP Jake Hohensee (1-2, 2.33 ERA, 19.1 IP, 13 K) vs. Cal Poly RHP Erich Uelmen (1-3, 2.43 ERA, 33.1 IP, 36 K)

Friday, March 24 (4:00 p.m. CT): Nebraska RHP Derek Burkamper (1-2, 3.78 ERA, 16.2 IP, 16 K) vs. Cal Poly RHP Spencer Howard (1-0, 1.27 ERA, 21.1 IP, 26 K)

Saturday, March 25 (3:00 p.m. CT): Nebraska LHP Jake Meyers (3-1, 1.54 ERA, 23.1 IP, 13 K) vs. Cal Poly RHP Bobby Ay (0-2, 3.95 ERA, 13.2 IP, 5 K)

Saturday, March 25 (30 minutes following): Nebraska TBA vs. Cal Poly TBA

*** Nebraska pitchers Jake Hohensee, Derek Burkamper, and Jake Meyers pieced together a masterful pitching performance over the weekend, allowing just two combined runs. Each pitcher allowed four hits or less and, perhaps most impressively, each lasted six innings or more. Statistically, the weekend starters are on pace for the record books, and if the Huskers can get dominating outings from the top three in their lineup, history shows they will win a lot of series.

In 2005, the last time the Huskers made the College World Series, Nebraska's weekend rotation of Johnny Dorn, Zach Kroenke, and Joba Chamberlain combined for a 2.59 season ERA and a 1.03 season WHIP. This year, Hohensee, Burkamper, and Meyers own a combined 2.43 season ERA and a 1.31 season WHIP.

The wild card right now is sophomore Matt Waldron, who struggled on Tuesday. In 2005, current major leaguer Brian Duensing owned an 8-0 record and a 1.15 WHIP as the fourth pitcher in the rotation. After being selected for the Big Ten All-Freshman team in 2016, Waldron hasn't been the same this season, giving up 39 hits in 25 2/3 innings with a 4.56 ERA. If he can regain his mojo from a year ago, he could round out the most dominating Nebraska pitching staff in more than a decade.

*** Husker hitters are on a much less historic pace in 2017, but a vast improvement has been made over the last five games. Since averaging two runs per game in the Frisco Classic and being stifled in the first two games of the Western Carolina series, Nebraska's offense has found its rhythm, averaging 7.6 runs per game since. The hitting struggles of seniors Ben Miller and Jake Schleppenbach continue to be cause for concern, but the veterans seem to be regaining a bit of their swagger with Miller scoring a run in each of the last three games and Schleppenbach back at the Mendoza line with a .200 batting average.

*** Erstad's "depth chart" at third base and shortstop will likely continue to change. No Husker has started more than three straight games at third base, with the coaches rotating through Angelo Altavilla, Luke Roskam, Mike Waldron, and Alex Raburn almost on a game-by-game basis. Altavilla and junior Brison Cronenbold have been the most common starters at shortstop, but until Cronenbold is fully healed from a nagging back injury that caused him to stay home from the Frisco Classic, expect Altavilla to see more time at that position.

*** The Cal Poly Mustangs got off to a slow start in 2017, dropping nine of their first 11 games against all California competition. The team has since started to heat up, notching wins over Cal State Bakersfield, Gonzaga, Loyola Marymount, and Wichita State en route to a 7-12 record. Cal Poly will be the second Big West team Nebraska has faced this year, with UC-Riverside being the other.

*** Sophomore right-hander Spencer Howard, Friday's probable starter, has been dominant on the mound this year. In his Saturday start against Wichita State, Howard threw seven scoreless innings and notched seven strikeouts. At 6-3, he's noted as one of the harder throwers in the Mustang lineup and ranks first in the Big West with 11 strikeouts per nine innings. Junior Erich Uelmen is also a strikeout whiz, ranking second in the Big West with 36 on the year.

*** While the Cal Poly offense has been shut out six times this year, there are multiple capable hitters in the lineup. Center fielder and leadoff hitter Alex McKenna is among the most consistent hitters in the Big West with a .356 average on the season. The sophomore leads the team in both hits and runs and is tied for the team lead with six stolen bases. The Mustangs have just three home runs on the year, but Kyle Marinconz is tied for the team lead with six extra-base hits, including two triples. It's worth noting that the Mustangs have scored 34 runs in the fifth inning or later of wins this season.